High Risk or Low Risk for a Data Center?

How does yourCounty stack up?

MARYLAND COUNTY‑BY‑COUNTY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Which counties are ripe for a quiet‑phase data‑center deal — and why.

HIGH‑RISK COUNTIES (Likely Targets)

These counties have the perfect combination of power, land, weak zoning, and executive discretion.

1. Calvert County — EXTREMELY HIGH RISK

Why:

• - Nuclear plant (Calvert Cliffs) = massive power availability

• - Confirmed NDA already in place

• - Commissioner system (centralized authority)

• - Rural land near transmission lines

• - Economic development staff already signaling interest

Likelihood of quiet‑phase deal: 10/10

2. Charles County — HIGH RISK

Why:

• - Cheap land

• - Transmission corridors

• - Rapid growth + revenue pressure

• - Zoning not fully updated for data centers

Likelihood: 9/10

3. St. Mary’s County — HIGH RISK

Why:

• - Weak zoning

• - Rural land

• - Economic development incentives

• - Proximity to Calvert grid infrastructure

Likelihood: 8/10

4. Caroline County — HIGH RISK

Why:

• - Cheap land

• - Fiber backbone running through the Shore

• - Desperate for economic development

Likelihood: 8/10

5. Washington County — HIGH RISK

Why:

• - Power infrastructure

• - Industrial land

• - Proximity to I‑70 corridor fiber

Likelihood: 7/10

6. Cecil County — HIGH RISK

Why:

• - I‑95 corridor

• - Cheap land compared to Harford

• - Strong transmission lines

Likelihood: 7/10

MODERATE‑RISK COUNTIES

These counties could be targeted but would face more friction.

7. Frederick County — MODERATE

Why:

• - Strong grid

• - Large parcels

• - But: highly organized residents, strong zoning

Likelihood: 5/10

8. Anne Arundel County — MODERATE

Why:

- Fiber + power

- But: expensive land, strong civic engagement

Likelihood: 4/10

LOW‑RISK COUNTIES

These counties are unlikely targets due to cost, politics, or zoning sophistication.

9. Howard County — LOW

Why:

• - Expensive land

• - Highly organized residents

• - Strong zoning

• - No economic desperation

• - Developers know they’d get hammered

Likelihood: 2/10

10. Montgomery County — VERY LOW

Why:

• - Extremely expensive land

• - Aggressive environmental politics

• - Strict zoning

• - High‑capacity opposition

Likelihood: 1/10

III. THE MARYLAND TAKEAWAY

Yes — counties should be watching for this.

The combination of:

• - NDAs

• - quiet‑phase negotiations

• - zoning rewrites

• - sudden meetings

• - and power‑grid coordination

is now the standard data‑center playbook.

Maryland is especially vulnerable because:

• - It has a statewide tax incentive

• - It has rural counties with commissioner systems

• - It has major power infrastructure

• - It has counties that don’t understand the industry yet

This is not a conspiracy — it’s a corporate strategy.