The Big Picture: Polling Averages & Trends
🟦 The Democratic Race: A Fractured Field
The Democratic primary is highly fluid, with support frequently fragmenting depending on the pollster.
Kamala Harris generally holds the strongest floor, leading in the majority of national polls (hitting up to 44% in Harvard-Harris and holding stable around 31% in the latest I&I/TIPP poll).
Gavin Newsom has established himself as the clear alternative frontrunner, consistently drawing mid-to-high teens and peaking at 26% in early June.
The Disruptors: The field remains wide open. Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both show major regional or structural strength, completely upending the race in outliers like Atlas Intel (AOC +4) and Emerson (Buttigieg +2).
🟥 The Republican Race: Vance’s Command
Unlike the Democrats, the Republican field has a dominant, central gravitational pull.
JD Vance enters June as the clear powerhouse, leading almost every national poll by double digits. He hits a commanding 47% in the Daily Mail poll and sits comfortably at 29% in the crowded I&I/TIPP survey.
Marco Rubio is his most consistent challenger, maintaining a strong second place across most surveys and pulling off a major +15 shocker in the mid-May Atlas Intel poll.
Donald Trump Jr. holds a solid, dedicated slice of the base (hovering between 10% and 21% when included), effectively acting as a major spoiler for the rest of the field.
National Polling Comparison (Late May – Mid-June)
This table tracks how the leading candidates have performed across the most recent national polls, highlighting the margins between first and second place.
DatePollsterPrimaryTop Candidate (%)Second Candidate (%)MarginJune 15I&I/TIPP🟦 DemHarris (31%)Newsom (14%)Harris +17June 15I&I/TIPP🟥 GOPVance (29%)Trump Jr. (19%)Vance +10June 7Financial Times🟦 DemHarris (37%)Newsom (17%)Harris +20June 7Financial Times🟥 GOPVance (38%)Rubio (18%)Vance +20June 2Harvard-Harris🟦 DemHarris (44%)Newsom (26%)Harris +18June 2Harvard-Harris🟥 GOPVance (45%)Rubio / Trump Jr. (21%)Vance +24May 28Emerson🟦 DemButtigieg (18%)Newsom (16%)Buttigieg +2May 28Emerson🟥 GOPVance (36%)Rubio (35%)Vance +1
Crucial Regional Insights
The state-level data highlights where national narratives break down and local favorite-son/daughter dynamics take over:
The Home Court Advantage: In California, Governor Gavin Newsom completely locks down his home state, leading AOC by 14 points (28% to 14%), while Harris falls to single digits (9%) in the LA Times poll. Similarly, Gretchen Whitmer takes the lead in her home state of Michigan (+4).
The New Hampshire Launchpad: New Hampshire polling shows a completely different race for the Democrats. Pete Buttigieg leads comfortably in both the Emerson (+8) and St. Anselm (+14) polls, proving his strong structural organizing footprint carries over in the Granite State.
Key Takeaway: While national polls suggest a predictable Harris vs. Vance matchup, the volatile state-level polling and occasional outlier swings (like Atlas Intel or Emerson) prove that neither primary is a done deal. Everything may flip quickly if a dark Horse candidate like Wes Moore beats Harris in South Carolina. She has to win SC and it is far from certain if Moore enters the race.