The indications from the special elections and from the polling are Republican. Candidates are going to be running 13 points off of their 2024 totals. Which means if you didn't win your race by more than 14 points, you're in trouble. Hogan didn't win and now it's a bad year for Republicans so he's not likely to run this time unless something drastic happens. He's not that old so he could wait four more years and there's a very good chance that he could do a lot better, but if he runs this time he's likely to lose.
I ran the projections last summer and I was thinking more could beat Hogan by five points. I recently did the numbers again and I think he can beat Hogan by 15 points. It's not that Hogan is a better or worse candidate. It's that when people are upset about the president and his approval rating, they're not likely to vote. So if you don't get a good vote, turn out in the red counties. Hogan falls short.
What’s the likelihood of Larry Hogan running again? A couple months ago, I remember seeing rumors of him running again.
The indications from the special elections and from the polling are Republican. Candidates are going to be running 13 points off of their 2024 totals. Which means if you didn't win your race by more than 14 points, you're in trouble. Hogan didn't win and now it's a bad year for Republicans so he's not likely to run this time unless something drastic happens. He's not that old so he could wait four more years and there's a very good chance that he could do a lot better, but if he runs this time he's likely to lose.
I ran the projections last summer and I was thinking more could beat Hogan by five points. I recently did the numbers again and I think he can beat Hogan by 15 points. It's not that Hogan is a better or worse candidate. It's that when people are upset about the president and his approval rating, they're not likely to vote. So if you don't get a good vote, turn out in the red counties. Hogan falls short.
I hope he runs again and gets crushed 😆