Confidential Sources: Sen. Bill Folden Poised to Lose District 4 Senate Race as Mail-In Ballots Swing Toward Democrat Lara Westdorp
FREDERICK COUNTY, Md. — Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Folden’s narrow lead in the race for Maryland’s Legislative District 4 Senate seat is evaporating, and multiple knowledgeable sources within Frederick County’s political circles now expect him to lose to his Democratic challenger, Lara Westdorp, as remaining mail-in ballots are counted.
According to confidential sources, Folden currently holds a lead of approximately 800 votes. However, an estimated 8,000 mail-in ballots remain to be processed in the district, and these ballots are overwhelmingly Democratic in their composition. The expectation among those familiar with the count is that the trend will decisively favor Westdorp, erasing Folden’s advantage and propelling her to victory as early as tomorrow, with a final call possibly extending into Monday.
This projection is based on the same pattern seen in the initial count, where Folden led Westdorp 26,280 votes to 23,856 after early voting and Election Day totals were reported. Election officials in Frederick County have been clear that a substantial number of mail-in ballots were still outstanding, prompting local leaders to anticipate a shift. District 3 State Sen. Karen Lewis Young has already publicly expressed confidence that the remaining ballots would allow Westdorp to overtake Folden.
The impending defeat is being viewed by some as a political reckoning for Folden, whose conduct on the final day (sine die) of the 2026 Maryland General Assembly session alienated colleagues and observers. Sources say Folden went out of his way to be extremely rude to the new Speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates, attempting to disrupt the session’s closing proceedings. Reports from the session’s chaotic final minutes describe Folden as frequently questioning bills and offering amendments as the clock ticked down, leading to a tense exchange on the floor.
While not everyone may celebrate his defeat, sources indicate that Folden’s decision to yell and scream on the floor of the General Assembly has alienated many individuals who might otherwise have been friendly or neutral toward him. For those who witnessed the disruption, there is a sense that the electoral outcome is a direct consequence of his behavior.
On the Democratic side, the down-ballot implications are also becoming clear. Two Democratic candidates for the House of Delegates in District 4, Jerry Donald and Andrew Duck, are expected to go over the top and win their seats. Current vote tallies show Donald leading the Democratic delegate candidates with 23,094 votes, followed by Duck with 22,443. Their victories, combined with Westdorp’s anticipated win, would represent a significant sweep for Democrats in a district that has leaned Republican.
The Westdorp campaign and the Folden campaign have not issued public statements regarding these confidential projections. However, the political landscape in Frederick County is bracing for a seismic shift, with the expectation that the era of Sen. Bill Folden’s representation in District 4 is coming to a close.