In Baltimore County, A Poll, A Police Endorsement, and a Pennsylvania Twist Complicate the Executive Race
TOWSON — The Democratic primary for Baltimore County Executive has taken several unexpected turns in recent days, with a questionable poll boosting Councilman Izzy Patoka, an unusual coalition forming behind Nick Stewart, and a police‑union endorsement that appears to have been decided by Republican officers who live in Pennsylvania.
The result is a race where the surface narrative — Patoka rising, Stewart surging, Jones slipping — does not match the underlying electoral math.
A Police Endorsement With an Out‑of‑State Center of Gravity
The most recent development is the endorsement of Nick Stewart by a single chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police. Not the countywide FOP, not the statewide FOP — one chapter.
Sources close to that chapter describe the vote as narrow, with Stewart “barely” edging out Council Chair Julian Jones. Those same sources say the vote split along racial lines and that the chapter’s membership is overwhelmingly composed of officers who live in York County, Pennsylvania, not Baltimore County.
The chapter endorsed Donald Trump in 2024, and most of its members are registered Republicans.
In effect, Stewart’s newest endorsement comes from Republican voters in Pennsylvania who work in Baltimore County but cannot vote in the Democratic primary that will decide the next County Executive.
Whether that endorsement helps or hurts Stewart is an open question. For some Democrats, it may signal bipartisan appeal. For others, it may raise concerns about ideological alignment — or about the racial dynamics of the vote.
Jimmy O’Toole: Stewart’s Coalition Is Real, But So Are the Questions
Political analyst Jimmy O’Toole notes that Stewart is assembling “a rather robust coalition of… forces that you would not ordinarily see,” including former County Executive Don Mohler, several development interests, and transparency advocates.
But O’Toole also warns that the Patoka‑commissioned poll showing Stewart in second place should be treated with skepticism.
“The poll done by Izzy Patoka… is intending to take more votes out of Julian Jones and Patrick Young’s pockets and put them into Nick Stewart’s pockets,” he said.
O’Toole praised your earlier analysis of the poll, calling it “extremely complementary,” and agreed that the firm behind it has no track record, no prior work history, and no methodological transparency.
A Poll That Dropped From the Sky
In normal political analysis, a poll is evaluated against:
- the firm’s past accuracy
- its methodology
- its sampling frame
- its weighting
- its history of partisan lean
This poll has none of that.
It is a firm with no prior existence, no staff with prior polling experience, and no public methodology. Even legitimate pollsters leave fingerprints — Gonzalez, for example, has a known Republican lean. This firm has no fingerprints at all.
A poll that “drops from the heavens like a meteor,” as one strategist put it, is not a poll that should be taken as gospel.
The Democratic Primary Electorate Still Favors Jones
The structural math of the race has not changed:
- In a gubernatorial‑year Democratic primary, 40–44% of the electorate is Black.
- Governor Wes Moore’s presence on the ballot is likely to increase, not decrease, Black turnout.
- The ballot will feature a Black Governor, a Black Attorney General, and a Black candidate for County Executive.
- Jones has a long‑standing, durable base in the Liberty Road corridor and among Democratic primary super‑voters.
Nothing in the Patoka poll or the Pennsylvania FOP endorsement alters those fundamentals.
The Real Question: Does Any of This Move Actual Democratic Voters?
Patoka’s poll gives him a temporary media boost. Stewart’s endorsement gives him a talking point. But neither development speaks to the core electorate that will decide the race.
The voters who matter most — Democratic primary voters — are not:
- Republican officers from York County
- Out‑of‑state FOP members
- Respondents in an untested poll
They are the same voters who have delivered consistent patterns for decades.
A Note on Don Mohler
Jimmy O’Toole may look askance at Don Mohler’s involvement, but you have a different view — and you asked to be quoted on it:
“I do not believe that butter would melt in his mouth. I like Don.”
It’s a line that captures both your tone and the county’s long‑standing familiarity with Mohler’s public persona.
The Bottom Line
Despite the noise — the poll, the endorsement, the speculation — the fundamentals of the race still point to Julian Jones as the candidate with the clearest structural advantage in a Democratic primary.
The question is not whether Patoka’s poll or Stewart’s Pennsylvania Republicans can reshape the race.
The question is whether they can overcome the basic arithmetic of Baltimore County Democratic politics.
Right now, there is little evidence that they can.