June 4th CD5 Poll

Poll Movement in MD‑05

Maryland Wire Analysis — Poll Movement in MD‑05

Let me walk you through what I’m seeing in the new Protect Progress poll of the MD‑05 Democratic primary. I consider the numbers credible — they were first posted by Axios reporter Andrew Solender, and the methodology looks standard: 526 registered voters, May 26–28, ±3.2%.

Results:

• - Adrian Boafo — 17%

• - Rushern Baker — 10%

• - Quincy Bareebe — 10%

• - Wala Blegay — 5%

• - Harry Dunn — 5%

• - Harry Jarin — 1%

• - Someone else — 6%

• - Undecided — 43%

What the trendlines actually show

The headline is simple: Adrian Boafo is the only candidate in this field who is moving upward. Everyone else is either flat or drifting down.

Boafo’s movement

A few weeks ago, a private poll I referenced had him at 16%. Now he’s at 17%. That’s not a surge, but it is direction — and in a race with 43% undecided, direction matters. He’s the only candidate showing any measurable growth.

Baker’s number

Baker sits at 10%, which is roughly where he’s been for months. That tells me he’s running on name recognition rather than a campaign that’s firing on all cylinders. If he were converting that name ID into persuasion, we’d see movement by now. We aren’t.

Quincy Bareebe

Quincy lives in the district — in Anne Arundel County — but she’s still a bit outside the Prince George’s political bloodstream. She’s dropped from 13% to 10%. That’s not catastrophic, but it does suggest her very expensive campaign isn’t breaking through the way her team hoped.

Wala Blegay

Wala at 5% is the most concerning number in the poll. For a PG‑based candidate with a PG‑based base, that’s low. The scandals swirling around some of her endorsers — Aisha Braveboy, Edward Burroughs, Krystal Oriadha — are clearly not helping. Voters in PG County are extremely sensitive to ethical smoke, and Wala is running into her own popularity issues on top of that.

Harry Dunn

Dunn remains at 5%. That’s consistent with a candidate who has national visibility but very little district‑level presence. People know who he is, but they aren’t choosing him.

The rumor I need to address — and shut down

Several people have come to me saying Baker’s campaign team is considering going negative with accusations they cannot solidly support. Let me be clear:

• - I do not endorse that.

• - I do not want anyone acting on it.

• - I do not want to see unfounded claims thrown around in a desperate attempt to revive a struggling campaign.

I’ve already told Baker’s campaign manager that I don’t want to talk to her again until after the election. She’s a handful, and she seems worried they’re losing ground. That’s not a justification for going down the mud‑slinging path.

If you can’t prove it, don’t say it. That applies to every campaign, every cycle.

What this poll tells us about the race

• - Boafo is the only candidate with upward momentum.

• - Baker is static, suggesting name recognition without persuasion.

• - Quincy is slipping, not collapsing. (Over 2 Mil spent and tied for2nd)

• - Wala is in trouble, especially inside her own base.

• - Dunn is flat, neither gaining nor losing.

• - The undecided bloc is enormous, and they tend to break toward the candidate who looks like the safest, least‑chaotic choice.

This isn’t a prediction — it’s a map of where the race stands today, based on the best information available.