Maryland Republicans Dream of a Hogan–Ehrlich Comeback — But Reality Bites
By Barry O’Connell
October, 2025
It’s the kind of fantasy that still lights up Maryland Republican chats: Larry Hogan and Bob Ehrlich, reunited for one more statewide run. Some imagine Hogan reclaiming Government House in Annapolis; others flip the ticket — Ehrlich for comptroller, Hogan as his establishment counterweight. Either way, it’s the “dream team” ticket that GOP loyalists believe could finally make Maryland competitive again in 2026.
But the dream crashes headlong into political math, and that math is merciless.
Poll Numbers Tell the Story
A recent Newsweek analysis reports that Governor Wes Moore holds a steady 45 percent approval with Hogan trailing at 37 percent in a hypothetical matchup, a single-digit gap that hasn’t budged in months.[11] The Baltimore Banner poll numbers echo the same story — Moore maintains roughly 50 percent approval statewide, with Democratic loyalty offsetting isolated softness among progressives.[12]
Analysts quoted across outlets generally agree: Hogan remains the GOP’s most viable name, but Moore’s incumbency and Maryland’s deep-blue tilt make him a heavy favorite for reelection.[13]
The Trump Shadow Over Annapolis
If Hogan or Ehrlich were to step into the 2026 fray, they’d do so under Trump’s shadow — and in Maryland, that’s a toxic brand. National polling might have Donald Trump hovering near 45 percent favorability, but in Maryland, private and party-commissioned surveys place him below 30 percent.[14]
Democrats have been relentless in tying every prospective Republican contender to Trump’s economic baggage: healthcare turmoil, job losses, and program rollbacks. As one Moore spokesperson told Newsweek, “Any Republican in this race will have to account for the actions of Donald Trump’s party. That’s a record Marylanders won’t support.”[11]
GOP Frustrations and Fantasies
Within Republican circles, the Hogan–Ehrlich scenario feels more like nostalgia than strategy. County committees, conservative blogs, and donor networks have speculated about the pairing all year. Yet neither Hogan nor Ehrlich has lifted a finger toward making it real.
Hogan’s only public tease came in August, when he posted an image of his 2024 Senate campaign RV captioned: “Slightly used, only 15,000 miles… or maybe we rewrap it and hit the road again?”[13] As for Ehrlich, GOP blogs have described him as “Maryland’s best hope for 2026,” but he’s made no public statements suggesting any actual interest.
The Bottom Line
Republicans can dream. They can plaster Hogan and Ehrlich onto fantasy ballots and whisper about redemption arcs. But the fundamentals haven’t budged: Wes Moore and Brooke Lierman remain solidly favored, and the Trump effect remains poison statewide.
Even Maryland’s most popular Republican alumni seem unwilling to test that truth again.
Footnotes
1. Katherine Fung, “Larry Hogan Chances of Beating Wes Moore to Make Comeback in Maryland,” Newsweek, October 16, 2025. Available at: http://www.newsweek.com/larry-hogan-chances-beating-wes-moore-comeback-maryland-poll-10892377
2. WYPR Staff, “Poll: 50% approve of Gov. Wes Moore, but support softens with Democrats,” WYPR / The Baltimore Banner, August 10, 2025. Available at: http://www.wypr.org/the-baltimore-banner/2025-08-11/poll-50-approve-of-gov-wes-moore-but-support-softens-with-democrats
3. Eugene Daniels, “A Larry Hogan return could jeopardize Wes Moore’s White House future,” Politico, August 19, 2025. Available at: http://www.politico.com/newsletters/the-recast/2025/08/19/larry-hogan-wes-moore-maryland-00514045
4. Brookings Institution, “What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections,” August 20, 2025. Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-history-tells-us-about-the-2026-midterm-elections
[5] Bob Ehrlich: Maryland’s Best Hope in 2026 https://mocogopclub.com/bob-ehrlich-marylands-best-hope-in-2026/
[6] Governor Spend Moore’s Numbers Are Circling the Drain – It is Time ... https://mocogopclub.com/governor-spend-moores-numbers-are-circling-the-drain-it-is-time-for-ehrlich-2026/
[7] The governor’s race is swinging drastically towards Westmore being ... https://www.facebook.com/groups/1434756060075833/posts/4138473893037356/
[8] 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maryland_gubernatorial_election