Larry Hogan’s absence from the 2026 Maryland governor’s race leaves Republicans scrambling, with Ed Hale flush with cash but politically tone‑deaf, Carl Brunner invisible, and John Myrick emerging as the only GOP hopeful actually working the ground. Meanwhile, Green Party candidate Andy Ellis looks poised to notch a record share, though still far from competitive.
Hogan Out, Republicans Adrift
Former Governor Larry Hogan’s decision to remain retired removes the GOP’s strongest potential contender. Hogan’s bipartisan appeal once helped Republicans down‑ballot in swing counties like Anne Arundel and Frederick. Without him, the party faces a steep uphill climb against incumbent Democrat Wes Moore, who is seeking re‑election.
The Republican Field
Declared Candidates
- Ed Hale – Retired banker and Baltimore Blast owner. Hale switched from Democrat to Republican in August 2025. Despite his wealth and fundraising advantage, Hale is widely seen as arrogant and politically inept. He tells CIA spy stories and relishes his Baltimore financial circle, but shows little ability to expand beyond that bubble. Hale appears convinced voters will select him based on résumé alone, rather than retail politics.
- John Myrick – Former U.S. Senate candidate (garnered about 3% in 2024). Unlike Hale, Myrick is actually campaigning: parades, signs, grassroots events. He positions himself as a public servant rather than a politician, endorsed by Veterans for America First. With Hogan, Ehrlich, and Hershey unlikely, Myrick may be the GOP’s most plausible nominee—though his general election ceiling looks no higher than Dan Cox’s 2022 performance.
- Carl Brunner – Firearms business owner. Filed, but inactive; no visible campaign presence.
- Kurt Wedekind – Farmer, paired with Shannon Wright (Baltimore mayoral nominee). Filed, but little traction.
Exploratory / Uncertain
- Steve Hershey – Senate Minority Leader. Formed an exploratory committee in September 2025. Hershey is respected, but he can read the numbers: Maryland’s partisan tilt makes a run highly unlikely. Until he formally announces, he remains uncertain.
- Christopher Bouchat – Delegate, exploratory committee only.
- Larry Hogan / Bob Ehrlich / Dan Cox – All floated, none filed. Hogan has said he is “enjoying retirement”. Ehrlich has shown no interest. Cox remains a perennial but diminished figure.
The Green Party Factor
- Andy Ellis – Debate coach, organizer, and Baltimore activist. Ellis is expected to double the Green Party’s all‑time high (about 2%) to possibly 4%. That’s historic for Greens in Maryland, but still far from competitive. His campaign emphasizes grassroots democracy and civic engagement.
Strategic Implications
- Republican morale is low: Without Hogan’s coattails, GOP candidates in swing districts face steeper odds.
- Ed Hale’s money doesn’t equal viability: His arrogance and lack of retail politics make him a weak frontrunner.
- John Myrick is the only one hustling: He may capture the nomination by default, but his general election prospects remain bleak.
- Andy Ellis could siphon votes: His 4% potential won’t win, but it could shape margins in a close Democratic primary or general.