The Mendelsohn Margin: How Maryland Republicans Lost the Middle in 2022
In the aftermath of Maryland’s 2022 gubernatorial election, a quiet but pointed observation from longtime Republican activist Al Mendelsohn has begun to echo louder among party strategists: “If Dan Cox were not the Republican nominee four years ago, Republicans would have likely won the Executive seat in AA and Frederick Co. They would likely have won two or three Senate seats and five House seats. Republicans may have also won the 6th CD.” That comment, posted in response to speculation about a potential Democratic wave in 2026, deserves more than a passing nod—it demands a full postmortem.
The Cox Conundrum
Dan Cox’s nomination was a triumph for the MAGA wing of the Maryland GOP, but it came at the expense of electability. Backed by Donald Trump, Cox defeated Kelly Schulz. Kelly wasLarry Hogan’s handpicked successor and a seasoned cabinet secretary—in the Republican pri mary with 52% of the vote. But Cox never pivoted to the center. His campaign remained anchored in culture war rhetoric, including repeated references to “transsexual indoctrination” in early education—a claim unsupported by any documented policy or curriculum.
This messaging may have energized the base, but it alienated swing voters in Maryland’s populous and diverse counties: Prince George’s, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore City, and Baltimore County. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1, winning statewide office requires crossover appeal. Cox’s refusal to moderate his tone or platform made that impossible.
The Down-Ballot Fallout
Mendelsohn’s analysis isn’t just theoretical. The ripple effects of Cox’s nomination were felt across the ballot:
- Anne Arundel County Executive: A winnable race lost amid Republican infighting and Cox’s drag on the ticket. Steuart Pittman won re-election over Jessica Haire with only 51.1%.
- Frederick County Executive: Democrat Jessica Fitzwater won by just 989 votes, or 50.4%. She lost the rural precincts but carried the city—just enough to edge out Republican Michael Hough.
- Legislative Seats: Republicans missed out on two or three Senate seats and five House seats, according to Mendelsohn’s estimate. These losses weren’t due to Democratic strength alone—they were compounded by a top-of-ticket candidate who repelled moderates and independents.
- 6th Congressional District: A competitive district that may have flipped red under a more centrist gubernatorial nominee.
The Schulz Scenario
Had Kelly Schulz won the primary, the GOP’s fortunes might have looked very different. Schulz brought executive experience as Secretary of Commerce and Labor, and she ran on a platform focused on affordability, crime, and education. Her campaign avoided the incendiary rhetoric that defined Cox’s run, and she was endorsed by Hogan, one of the most popular governors in Maryland history.
Schulz’s moderate tone and policy-driven approach could have appealed to independents and suburban Democrats. Her candidacy might have helped Republicans hold Anne Arundel and Frederick counties, pick up legislative seats, and mount a serious challenge in the 6th CD.
Foxwell Addresses The Schulz Question
“It’s difficult to speculate, in hindsight, on how specific races may or may not have changed had Kelly been the GOP nominee.Here’s what we can say, with confidence. Obviously, the gubernatorial race would have been highly competitive and, yes, there are down races that would have flipped from the Democrats to the Republicans. The Frederick County Executive’s race comes immediately to mind.But the big difference I see is that a gubernatorial race between Wes Moore and Kelly Schulz is one that Marylanders could have actually been proud of.Two accomplished and visionary leaders - both of whom happen to be genuinely good people. Both love the state and are motivated by public service, and simply have different ideas for how to make the state better.I think we could have actually had a contest of ideas between two serious people, and I’m of the mind that our state would have been better for the experience.I do think my friend, Kelly, is happier now than she would have been as governor. She has transformed the Tech Council, and her positive influence on our state's entrepreneurial business climate can’t be overstated.”From an email from Len Foxwell that I share with his permission
The Pivot That Never Came
Even if Cox had won the primary, a strategic pivot to the center could have salvaged the general election. He could have focused on inflation, border security, opioid addiction, and parental rights in education, issues with broad bipartisan concern. Instead, he doubled down on MAGA themes, including vaccine conspiracies and election denialism.
His performance in the Maryland Public Television debate was a missed opportunity. Analysts noted that while Cox made a few gestures toward moderation—calling himself a “civil rights attorney” and praising Hogan’s record, they felt half-hearted and inconsistent with his overall messaging
Conclusion: The Mendelsohn Margin
Al Mendelsohn’s comment captures a truth that Maryland Republicans must reckon with: the cost of ideological purity is electoral defeat. Whether through a Schulz nomination or a Cox pivot, the GOP had a path to competitiveness in 2022. They chose otherwise—and paid the price.
If 2026 brings a Democratic wave, it won’t be because Maryland voters are inherently liberal. It will be because Republicans failed to meet them in the middle.
Footnotes:
1. Mendelsohn’s original comment posted in response to my 2026 Blue Wave article.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16wyT9JEEQ/
2. Cox’s primary win over Schulz:
3. Cox’s campaign rhetoric and refusal to pivot:
4. Jessica Fitzwater’s narrow win in Frederick County:
http://www.wfmd.com/2022/11/18/fitzwater-wins-frederick-county-executive-race/
5. Schulz’s platform and Hogan endorsement:
6. Cox’s debate performance and missed opportunity:
7. Down-ballot losses attributed to Cox’s nomination: Mendelsohn’s analysis.
The Democratic Governors Association spent $1.1 million to highlight Dan's positions. Had Kelly been the nominee; they would have likely spent 5 times that to defeat her. I congratulate the DGA on their strategy.
That $5M likely made some of the difference in Arizona, Kansas, Oregon and Wisconsin Governor's races.
It is worth pointing out that the DGA did not mislead. They clearly stated Dan's positions many of which line up with mine but do not line up with the majority of Maryland voters. They also showed his connection to President Trump at a time when Kelly was running with Governor Hogan who was decidedly anti-Trump. Maryland voters had shown two years before that they were not Trump voters.
That trickle down, also kept money away from fine candidates in AA, Howard and Fredrick.
The Republicans lost 2 seats in the Senate and 3 in the HOD. I think we are at our low point but with good candidates, Governor Moore's per performance, our out-of-control spending and taxing, the MDGOP will rebound.