District 25: The Race Everyone Thinks They Understand — Until They Don’t
District 25 is one of those places where people from the outside think they can read the tea leaves by looking at endorsements and slates. But if you’ve lived in this county long enough, if you’ve watched these personalities move through the system, if you’ve seen who actually shows up in the community and who just shows up on paper, you know the story is never that simple.
This year is no different. Three appointed incumbents, two serious challengers, and a district that has a long memory and a short tolerance for nonsense.
Let’s walk through it the way I see it — not the way a spreadsheet sees it.
1. Denise Roberts — The Safest Seat in the Room
Denise is exactly what she appears to be:
- Friendly
- Approachable
- Well‑liked
- Not flashy
- Not scandal‑adjacent
She’s been around long enough that people know her, but not long enough to have accumulated the barnacles that drag some incumbents under. She’s the kind of candidate who doesn’t have to “win” voters — she just has to remind them she’s there.
She’s the safest of the five. Full stop.
2. Anthony Tilghman — The Strength That Doesn’t Show Up on Paper
This is where the outside world gets it wrong.
Anthony isn’t just a “challenger.” He’s a fixture.
He’s been doing the work long before he ever filed for office.
Make Smart Cool
Eight to ten years of running a youth education and empowerment program is not a footnote — it’s a foundation.
That’s the kind of thing that builds:
- Parent loyalty
- Teacher goodwill
- Community trust
- A reputation for showing up
And unlike most candidates, Anthony has a real social media presence — not the consultant‑managed, sterile kind, but the kind that actually reaches people who vote.
He’s a town commissioner, yes. But he’s also a known quantity, a familiar face, and someone people feel they already understand.
If you’re only looking at endorsements, you miss all of that.
If you’re looking at the district the way I look at the district, Anthony is at least tied with Antoine Thompson — and possibly a nose ahead.
3. Antoine Thompson — The Polished, Well‑Funded Challenger
Antoine is the strongest institutional challenger.
He’s got:
- Labor
- Environmental groups
- Progressive groups
- Money
- A résumé that reads well to people who like résumés
He’s respected. He’s serious. He’s not playing around with fundraising.
But here’s the thing:
District 25 doesn’t always reward the best résumé. It rewards the best relationship.
Antoine is absolutely in the top tier.
But he’s not automatically ahead of Anthony just because he has more logos on his website.
4. Kent Roberson — The Appointment Without a Base
Kent is a good guy who got a tough assignment.
Being county party chair in Prince George’s County is not a launchpad. It’s a stress position with no real constituency attached to it. It doesn’t build a voter base. It doesn’t build a donor base. It doesn’t build a volunteer base.
He has endorsements, yes.
But endorsements don’t vote. People do.
And I don’t see the people lining up behind him in the same way they’re lining up behind Anthony or Antoine.
He’s not out of the running — but he’s not in the top three in my read.
5. Karen Toles — The One With the Most to Lose
Karen’s problem isn’t legislative.
It’s relational.
The D9 sorority conflict is real.
It’s messy.
It’s personal.
And it’s the kind of thing that quietly kills a campaign in PG County because it affects:
- Volunteers
- Donors
- Word‑of‑mouth
- Trusted networks
She’s on the slate, yes.
But a slate can only carry you so far when your own base is fractured.
I don’t see her holding the seat.
6. The Ranking — As I See It Today
Not predicting winners.
Not projecting outcomes.
Just ranking the current strength of the candidates based on the full picture — the public facts and the community realities.
1. Denise Roberts — safest
2. Anthony Tilghman — community‑rooted strength that doesn’t show up in endorsements
3. Antoine Thompson — strong institutional challenger
4. Kent Roberson — appointment without a natural base
5. Karen Toles — relational liabilities outweigh structural advantages
That’s one incumbent and two challengers in the top three.
7. Where My Trusted Advisor Adds Context
He pointed out — correctly — that Antoine has the heavier endorsement portfolio.
He also pointed out that slates matter in PG County.
Both are true.
But endorsements and slates don’t erase:
- A decade of youth work
- A real community presence
- A reputation for integrity
- A social media footprint
- A known face in the district
That’s why Anthony sits where he sits in my ranking.