TN CD7 went D+13 over Trump in 2024. Meaning the Republican won by 9% in a district Trump won by 22. If that trend continues Maryland Republicans are in Deep Trouble. Even if +13 shrinks it still indicates that Repubulican voter turnout shrinks and Dems show up.
The most vulnerable Republican seats in Maryland are concentrated in suburban swing districts (Frederick, Anne Arundel, Carroll, and parts of Harford), plus Saint Mary’s, Calvert, Talbot and Wicomico. While Democrats in Trump‑leaning areas like District 42B (Michelle Guyton’s seat in Baltimore County) and parts of Western Maryland remain battleground legislators.
🟥 Vulnerable Republican Districts (2026 Outlook) Partial List since I feel sick tonight.
Frederick County (Districts 4 & 5):
Rapid suburban growth and demographic shifts have eroded GOP dominance. Democrats already hold the county executive seat, and legislative Republicans here are vulnerable.
Jesse Pippy led Andrew Duck by less than 5 %. In a down midterm all the Republicans are vulnerable in D4. Districts 4
Jerry Donald Democratic Strong Campaigner, likely pickup
Andrew Duck Democratic likely pickup.
Alleria Stanley Democratic I don’t know her
April Fleming Miller Republican
April Fleming Miller Republican
Jesse T. Pippy Republican
Districts 5
April R. Rose Republican
Sallie B. Taylor Republican
Chris Tomlinson Republican
- Anne Arundel County (Districts 30 & 33): Annapolis and suburban areas are trending Democratic. Republican delegates and senators in these districts face increasing pressure. Schmidt won last time by 1%. In a Dem+13 he is going down. Chuck Cook looks strong to win.
Chuck Cook Democratic Likely pickup.
Stuart M. Schmidt, Jr. Republican Incumbent
- Carroll County (District 5): Still Republican‑leaning, but suburban spillover from Howard County makes some seats less secure than before.
April R. Rose Republican
Sallie B. Taylor Republican
Chris Tomlinson Republican
Steve Whisler Republican
Apologies!
I have a lot more but I don’t feel well tonight
You should also look at District 31 in Anne Arundel :) Democrats are fielding a full slate up there for the first time since 2018. Considering one of their delegates was appointed (and didn't make it out of the primary in 2022 and lost by a 2 - 1 margin in a school board race in district 5...) coupled with the open seat being vacated by Nic Kipke to run for State Senate... :) Don't discount it! Happy to chat more with you about the candidates running in 31 (including me!).
Thank you. Get better quickly. Rest, relax, pray or meditate, whichever brings you peace.