Barry O’Connell Projections

Maryland Gubernatorial Outlook – Early General Election Simulation (2026)

Hypothetical Matchup: Gov. Wes Moore (D) vs. Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R)

Methodology: Modeled using demographic turnout patterns, historical precinct data, and comparative sentiment analysis of independent voters. Not affiliated with any polling firm or campaign operation. These projections reflect Barry O’Connell’s independent outlook based on available political indicators.

Candidate Party Estimated Support (%) Projected Margin

Wes Moore (incumbent) Democrat 52.8% +5.6%

Larry Hogan Republican 47.2% —

Key Observations:

- Moore holds steady in core Democratic strongholds (Prince George’s, Montgomery, Baltimore City), while building modest gains among younger suburban voters in Howard and Charles Counties.

- Hogan remains resilient in Frederick, Carroll, and Eastern Shore counties, and is expected to reclaim support from independents and moderate Democrats in Anne Arundel and Northern Baltimore County.

- Despite Hogan’s statewide name recognition and favorability, Maryland’s baseline partisan tilt gives Moore a stable advantage in a presidential-cycle election environment.

Summary:

The projection models a lean Democratic hold with competitive edges in swing jurisdictions, suggesting that while Moore enters with favorable terrain, Hogan’s legacy appeal makes this one of the closest contests Maryland has seen in decades.